Afghanistan have weathered the odds and made it to their first ever semifinal in an ICC event and will take on an unbeaten South Africa who will be looking forward to rewriting their winless history in semifinals in World Cups. A deep dive into the key tactics and matchups that could determine the course of the first semi-final in Tarouba.
Selection calls
South Africa have used only 12 players in the tournament so far swapping Tabriaz Shamsi and Ottneil Baartman according to conditions and oppositions on the day. Shamsi featured only in three games this World Cup but was Player of the Match in two of them, but with the Afghanistan batting lineup predominantly composed of right handers, which is his less preferred matchup to bowl to, Baartman offers extra pace that could unsettle a few in the opposition ranks while an out of the box move would be to include another left arm orthodox spinner in Bjorn Fortuin. Afghanistan would be tempted to bring in a left hander in Hazratullah Zazai or Najibullah Zadran in place of Karim Janat to bolster their ailing middle order.
What has Tarouba offered?
The Brian Lara Cricket Academy in Tarouba played host to Group C games and the bowlers ruled the roost in the four group stage games held here. The overwhelming numbers in favour of bowlers here should be taken with a pinch of salt as three of those games featured either Uganda or PNG – two of the weakest batting lineups in the tournament coming up against some top quality bowling attacks. In the only other game here between West Indies and New Zealand, the hosts successfully defended 149, despite of the presence of dew. Fast bowlers have taken 38 wickets at 12.16 of which 18 have come in the Powerplay where they average 9.61 and strike every 14.1 balls (ER 4.09). The semifinal is expected to be played on a fresh wicket.
Afghanistan have preferred to put runs on the board, winning all the four matches they batted first while both their defeats have come in run chases. The game will be played under lights which Afghanistan will be better accustomed to given nine of their last ten T20Is in the Caribbean being night games compared to South Africa who have played just two under lights out of their last 15 in these parts of the world. Afghanistan beat PNG at this venue in the group stage and some of their players have prior experience here featuring in CPL games while this will be South Africa’s first game here in any format. As far as CPL experience is concerned among South Africans, Shamsi has played four CPL matches here while Quinton de Kock featured in one. Also, Afghanistan have a spotless 5-0 win-loss record in the three most bowling friendly wickets in West Indies this tournament – Providence, Arnos Vale, & Tarouba.
Pace vs Spin in Tarouba this WC
| Type | Overs | Wkts | Avg | ER | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 90.4 | 38 | 12.16 | 5.10 | 14.3 |
| Spin | 40.2 | 13 | 17.00 | 5.48 | 18.6 |
De Kock vs Afghanistan new ball bowlers
De Kock has carried South Africa’s batting in the Powerplay, especially in the Caribbean leg, hitting 136 runs at a strike rate of 168 while the rest have scored just 122 runs at 70 in this phase. De Kock is their leading run getter of the tournament and he has his task cut out against two inform bowlers in Fazalhaq Farooqi and Naveen-ul-Haq, both of whom sit at the top of Powerplay wicket charts with nine and eight scalps respectively. The new ball has swung appreciably here under lights in Tarouba and Naveen with his around the wicket angle will look to cramp De Kock for room outside off. Naveen has bowled 16 balls to southpaws in Powerplay of which five resulted in dismissals, with all of those bowled from around the wicket. Farooqi can challenge De Kock’s inside edge with the ball that shapes back to the left hander, a delivery that has had the batter in trouble in the past with his angled bat face paving way for played-on mode of dismissals.
South Africa middle order vs Afghanistan spinners
Tarouba has been one of the most spin friendly wickets in the world and Gudakesh Motie’s ball that turned square to beat Daryll Mitchell’s outside edge to castle him is one of the balls of the tournament. In Heinrich Klaasen, South Africa have undisputedly the best hitter of spin in white ball cricket across the last 18 months. Even in the adverse conditions that were on offer in this World Cup, Klaasen averages 87 and is striking at 143 against spin compared to 19 and 108 by the rest of South Africa’s top seven combined. His face off against Rashid Khan, the standout spinner of the tournament, will hold a massive sway on the result of this semifinal. Klaasen has hit 64 runs off the 34 balls he faced from Rashid in T20s (including MLC) for two dismissals, but the latter has got the better of him the last three times they crossed paths – MLC 2023 finals, ODI World Cup 2023 and more recently in IPL 2024.
David Miller, the only left handed option in South Africa’s middle order, has struggled big time against spin in T20s this year averaging 17 and striking at 115. Four of his five dismissals in this World Cup have come against spin and against the three Afghan spinners combined he has gotten out seven times in 73 balls for just 78 runs across all T20s.
SA batters vs spin in WC 2024
| Batsman | Runs | Dis | Avg | SR | 4s | 6s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klaasen | 87 | 1 | 87.00 | 142.62 | 5 | 6 |
| De Kock | 74 | 3 | 24.67 | 127.59 | 9 | 1 |
| Markram | 51 | 2 | 25.50 | 108.51 | 4 | 1 |
| Miller | 43 | 4 | 10.75 | 93.48 | 3 | 1 |
| Hendricks | 36 | 2 | 18.00 | 87.80 | 1 | 1 |
| Stubbs | 42 | 2 | 21.00 | 120.00 | 3 | 1 |
Nortje could prove to be quite a handful on this surface against the Afghanistan middle order. ©AFP
Expect Maharaj to bowl in the Powerplay
Openers Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran have accounted for 58% of the runs scored by Afghanistan in this tournament and laid the platform in each of the four games they batted first. Skipper Aiden Markram showcased tactical flexibility in the virtual quarterfinal match against West Indies where he bowled four overs of his off spin straight up against two lefties in Kyle Mayers and Nicholas Pooran, dismissing the latter off the very first ball of his spell, even it kept Kagiso Rabada out of the attack up until the 18th over of the innings.
Keshav Maharaj has been phenomenal in this World Cup with none of his four over spells costing more than 27 runs. His immaculate control of length and use of the cross wind to drift the ball in the air has resulted in nine wickets at 6.08 per over and each of his nine scalps being right handers. Gurbaz has often got out to left-arm orthodox while Zadran has been easily tied down in the past as his strike rate of well under a run a ball against this style of bowling suggests. Left handers from Afghanistan’s top seven have faced just 3.5% of the balls, second lowest in the competition behind Ireland. The lack of a southpaw could make Maharaj settle into a line and length from where he could force the right handers to hit the ball into the wind, cutting off access to one side of the boundary.
Afg openers vs middle order
| Position | Runs | Avg | SR | 4s | 6s | Bou % | 50+ scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Openers | 504 | 36.00 | 118.31 | 42 | 20 | 14.6% | 5 |
| Middle order (3-7) | 331 | 13.24 | 105.41 | 18 | 15 | 10.5% | 0 |
Can Nortje hit Afghanistan’s soft underbelly?
While Gurbaz and Zadran sit atop the run charts, none of the other Afghanistan batters have managed to come anywhere close to them with Azmatullah Omarzai’s 101 runs being the next highest aggregate. Their middle order (#3 to #7) has cumulatively averaged 13.24 – by a distance the lowest among the teams that made it to Super 8. In four of the six matches they opened together, Gurbaz and Zadran batted out half of the innings leaving the middle order less number of balls to settle in and rather hit the ground running. But should they get separated early, Afghanistan’s middle order could come up against a South African attack that has been the best bowling side in the middle overs.
The spin trio of Shamsi, Maharaj and Markram have taken 13 wickets at a rate of 14.8 balls per dismissal between overs seven and 15, while their pacers have accounted for ten scalps at an average of 18.90 – Anrich Nortje accounting for eight of the ten. Nortje has been on fiery form and the pitches at Tarouba have witnessed variable bounce with the ball skidding from a length. Nortje’s thunderbolts could unsettle Afghanistan’s middle order batters who have been historically weak against high pace and hard lengths.
