South Africa vs India – A tactical preview of the grand finale

The two best teams of the tournament are the last two standing and for the first time in its short history, an unbeaten side will be crowned T20 World Cup champions. While India will be desperate to break the duck in ICC events since 2014, their opponents South Africa have made history by reaching their maiden finals in World Cups (50-over or 20-over) and would want to make the occasion extra special winning the silverware. India have dominated South Africa in ICC events in the recent times winning seven of the last eight head-to-head contests with South Africa’s only win coming in the most recent T20 World Cup game in Perth in 2022. Here’s a lowdown on the crucial exchanges that could determine the course of the final at the iconic Kensington Oval.

Kensington Oval in this World Cup

This has been the busiest venue in this World Cup hosting eight matches across Group B and Super 8. India beat Afghanistan by 47 runs in their only game here while South Africa last played here in any format back in 2016. Kensington Oval has been among the better batting venues this World Cup with an average first innings score of 150, which rises to 163 in day games. The win-loss record for sides batting first and chasing is evenly split 3-3 with one match each ending in a tie and no result. In the four completed day games, the pattern remains consistent with 2-2 split. The match will be played on a used wicket that also hosted Oman vs Namibia (night game) and the England vs Scotland stalemate.

Both pace and spin have better numbers under light than in day matches. Pacers average 33.70 in Powerplay in day games which is the second worst for a venue this World Cup that hosted multiple games. The day games have seen very little lateral movement for the new ball and the most productive delivery for seamers in day have been pace off ones from good length or shorter. England learned it the hard way in their match against Australia here and by the time they got a warp around conditions, Australia ran away with the game. For spinners, the turn has been on the slower side compared to some of the other Caribbean venues, but inconsistent bounce has been a recurring feature.

Wind has played a determining factor in the matches in Bridgetown with the Australia-England match witnessing wind speed over 25 kph, blowing from east to west. The wind combined with one shorter boundary of 58 meters meant 90% of the boundaries hit square that game came to one side. If dimensions remain consistent as the two previous matches on the same wicket, the shorter boundary towards the Greenidge & Haynes stand will be just 61 meter away with the wind blowing towards it.

Win the Powerplay & win the contest?

In each of the seven completed matches in Bridgetown this tournament, the sides that won the Powerplay went on to win the match. The batting has gotten tougher as the innings progress and the ball gets softer. In Bridgetown, teams scored at 7.76 in Powerplay which comes down to 7.35 in the middle phase (7-15) and only improves to 8.73 in the death overs (16-20), a percentage rise of just 12.5% from Powerplay to death which happens to be second lowest for any venue this tournament, only behind Arnos Vale.

Powerplay scores in Bridgetown

The two chief protagonists for the teams will be the erstwhile Mumbai Indians opening pair of Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock, who have been striking at 147 and 158 respectively in this phase. South Africa have been one of the worst performing sides in Powerplay losing 16 wickets in eight innings and their runs/wicket of 19.81 only ahead of Bangladesh’s 18.33 among the sides that made it to the Super 8. De Kock has carried South Africa’s batting in this phase scoring nearly double the runs at almost twice the strike rate to the rest of his teammates. De Kock has had issues against the incoming balls from left-arm pacers and has got out to them eight times inside Powerplay since last December. India have Arshdeep Singh in their ranks who can bring the ball back to the southpaws from over the wicket and has the wood over De Kock in T20s dismissing him thrice in 32 balls at an ER of 5.81. The pickup shot off straighter lines has reaped dividends for De Kock in the past and the shot could well be in play at Kensington when hit with the wind behind it, but on a wicket where the ball hasn’t come on to the bat quite well from length, the shot again opens up avenue for a dismissal.

Setting up targets have been an Achillies heel for India in knockouts games in the recent past but in this tournament they scored above par totals in each of the five instances they batted first. Skipper Rohit has been instrumental in that, taking risks when the field is up, maximizing Powerplay overs. Rohit will have his task cut out against Marco Jansen and Kagiso Rabada, both of whom have six wickets each in this phase and conceding at under six an over. Rabada has troubled Rohit in the past across formats and in T20s he has dismissed him four times – thrice in Powerplay – with the former striking only at 118. Rohit, one of the best exponents of pull shot in the modern game, has often got out playing that shot to Rabada across formats. Rabada has cramped the batter for room bowling at the body, not letting his arms free to impart any power on the shot and the inconsistent bounce on the wicket keeps that mode of dismissal in play.

Can Nortje and the spin twins tame India’s rampant middle order?

India is the best batting side in the middle phase since Super 8 scoring at 9.28 per over – two runs an over to what rest of the sides have cumulatively managed. They will be up against the side that has taken most wickets in this phase across the tournament at a rate of 14.28 runs/wicket and conceding at just about a run a ball. South Africa have three of the top ten wicket takers in this phase in their ranks: Anrich Nortje, Tabriaz Shamsi, and Keshav Maharaj. South Africa have dented their opponents with regular strikes in Powerplay and middle overs picking 44 wickets in eight innings by the end of 15th over, opening one end by the time death overs commence.

South Africa bowlers in middle overs

India have a mixture of four right and left handers each in their top eight that would enable them to play the matchup game well against the spin twins Maharaj and Shamsi. Unlike India who have six frontline bowling options, South Africa have only five at their disposal. Should India play their matchups well, South Africa will be forced to call services of Aiden Markram if one of their bowlers have an off day. Shamsi’s record against India in white ball cricket is significantly inferior to his overall career stats, but this Indian middle order has a different composition to what he bowled to in the past. He will be licking his lips in the prospect of bowling to India’s middle order that boasts of four southpaws, to whom he has a far superior record.

If there’s one style of bowling that has put breaks on Suryakumar Yadav’s free flowing batting in T20 cricket, it has to be the left arm orthodox. But in Maharaj, he has someone whom he enjoys a positive head-to-head: across the 43 balls he faced from the Dolphins’ spinner across five innings, he has scored 69 runs without getting dismissed. That said, the conditions in Bridgetown will be the one that would be ally to Maharaj than any of the ones when he previously bowled to Surya. Surya has been dismissed by pace off deliveries in three of the last four innings and South Africa seamers could try not giving pace for Surya to work on and starve him off his scoring areas behind square.

Rishabh Pant, India’s only left-hander in their top four, has had a poor record against South Africa in T20Is averaging just 15.43 across eight innings and this has largely been a result of their left-arm finger spinners bowling well at him dismissing him four times. Maharaj has got him out twice in eight balls in India in 2022 bowling wider lines to him and making Pant mishit to the fielders deep in the offside.

Can Klaasen tackle India’s in-form spin attack?

India’s spin attack has looked almost impregnable ever since Kuldeep Yadav made it to the XI. Since the start of Super 8, India’s spinners have picked 16 wickets at a rate of 14.2 balls/dismissal – both the best for any side, closely followed by South Africa. Kuldeep and Axar have both made good use of skid on offer from the pitches by bowling a wicket-to-wicket to line and keeping LBW and bowled modes of dismissal on play. Six out of ten wickets for Kuldeep have come this way while the same reads three of Axar, who has also got a couple of right handers out caught trying to sweep him from the straight lines.

Klaasen will be South Africa’s primary defense against the spin attack given how the rest have struggled. In this World Cup, Klaasen scored 87 runs off spin at a strike rate of 143 for one dismissal compared to 19.54 and 109 for the rest of the top six combined. Klaasen hit 31 runs off 18 balls he faced from Kuldeep in T20s without getting out while against Axar he has scored 55 off 35 for once out. Klaasen’s game against spin is set on his ability to go deep in the crease and get under good length balls but on tracks with variable bounce his technique will be stress tested severely.

India have to dispose four overs of left arm finger spin and the two southpaws in South Africa’s top seven have a good head-to-head against them. De Kock averages 90 at a strike rate of 158 against Axar and Ravindra Jadeja combined while Miller’s read 66 and 169 respectively. If there’s one weak link in an otherwise splendid Indian attack, it is the left arm spin duo, especially an out of form Jadeja. South Africa would want to maximize these four overs and one of De Kock or Miller being out in the middle throughout the middle phase will be key for them.

South Africa batters against spin this World Cup